Adjusting bid shading in real-time bidding with only aggregated win-rate feedback means working with blurry signals instead of per-impression outcomes. I would treat win-rate as a coarse proxy for auction competitiveness and update shading factors gradually using windowed averages. If win-rates drop after lowering bids, I'd slightly increase shading; if they stay stable, I'd push efficiency further. Segmenting by traffic type or time helps reduce noise. A bandit-style approach could test multiple shading multipliers in parallel and shift weight toward better-performing ranges.